Best Actor

Leonardo DiCaprio – Blood Diamond

Ryan Gosling – Half Nelson

Peter O’Toole – Venus

Will Smith – The Pursuit of Happyness

Forest Whitaker – That Last King of Scotland

An interesting horse-race, and an interesting conundrum. Peter O’Toole has been nominated for Best Actor eight times, but has never won. He’s also going to turn 75 this year, but I think the general perception is that he won’t be around much longer; he’s probably been a perennial death pool pick for the last decade. On the other hand, he received an honorary Oscar in 2003 – not that many people remember that. Also, in Venus, he plays even older and more decrepit than he probably really is. So, O’Toole has a slight edge in the “he’ll be dead soon, so let’s give it to him” category. On the other hand, nice-guy Forest Whitaker plays scary evil dictator Idi Amin in an era during which evil dictators, domestic and foreign, are certainly on the radar.

Gosling is the fluke nominee here; an actor few people have heard of in a movie few people saw. And, while Will Smith has certainly earned his acting stripes, The Pursuit of Happyness was very sappy; basically, The Kid for a new millennium.

I’m going to lean toward the Academy’s average age first, and favor O’Toole in this category, Whitaker close second. DiCaprio might snag the statue, but only as a “Whoops, we didn’t nominate him for The Departed” consolation prize.

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin - Little Miss Sunshine

Jackie Earle Haley - Little Children

Djimon Hounsou - Blood Diamond

Eddie Murphy - Dreamgirls

Mark Wahlberg - The Departed

Anybody’s guess, but it’s probably even money between Wahlberg and Arkin. This is Arkin’s third nomination, but he’s never won – although he was last nominated 38 years ago, before Wahlberg was even born. On the other hand, although this is Wahlberg’s first nomination ever, he’s one of those people who has so elevated himself from his beginnings – and proven himself in the process – that he just may win on sheer goodwill. Find me a person who doesn’t like Marky Mark as a grown up actor, I’ll find you someone who kicks puppies for fun. On the other hand, Mr. Wahlberg clearly has a long career in front of him, while Arkin has an incredible career behind him.

Eddie Murphy is the longshot – Pluto Nash, anyone? Not to mention that all the Norbit PR has, unfortunately, just kicked into high geer. And, given the otherwise Dreamgirls snub in nominations, he’s a longshot. Likewise, while Jackie Earle Haley has a long Hollywood pedigree, he appeared in a movie with a touchy subject that few people saw. And Djimon Hounsou is acting against a certain simple fact of Oscar night – it’s all about the diamonds. Harry Winston’s freebies are tacit votes against Blood Diamond winning anything, except among the categories only voted on by below-the-line people.

In this category, even money on Arkin and Wahlberg. But backlash against Little Miss Sunshine being a best picture nominee may hurt Arkin. Besides which, no one expects Arkin to drop dead soon, despite his being almost as old as O’Toole. Favorite: Wahlberg. Especially if the lavender mafia is as powerful as everyone thinks it is.

Best Actress

  Penélope Cruz - Volver

  Judi Dench - Notes on a Scandal

  Helen Mirren - The Queen

  Meryl Streep - The Devil Wears Prada

  Kate Winslet - Little Children

My personal choice here would be Meryl Streep, which is ironic given my history. Why? Because, in far too many films, I’ve been treated to Meryl being AN… ACTRESS!!! In The Devil Wears Prada, she dropped her mannerisms, underplayed it, and created an evil character that was totally understandable and sympathetic.

However… Meryl falls into the Kate Hepburn category – that is, an actress who has been nominated every time she’s been on film, and has all the awards, so who cares? True or not, that’s the perception, so count her out. She the actress that other actresses admire and hate – admire for her talent, but hate for her accolades. As Streep herself said upon hearing of the nomination, paraphrased, “I’m surprised anyone voted for me, I thought none of them were even talking to me.”

Likewise, while I love Judi Dench, she probably labors under the same assumption: yeah, we’ve nominated her a brazillion times, and she’s gotten her kudos, so forget her. (In reality, no. She’s been nominated six times, but has never won.)

Kate Winslet: nobody saw her movie, no chance.

Penélope Cruz: too fluffy.

This category belongs to Helen Mirren, and everyone will forget that her make-up artists did 95% of the work. In The Queen, she was Betty Windsor… er, Elizabeth II. And since Helen Mirren is generally perceived as hot, her turning into the frump mistress of the Empire can’t hurt. If there’s a slam-dunk this year, this is it. And, face it – Helen Mirren is an amazing actress, and has been for decades. About time that she snags the gold.

Best Supporting Actess

Adriana Barraza - Babel

Cate Blanchett - Notes on a Scandal

Abigail Breslin - Little Miss Sunshine

Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls

Rinko Kikuchi – Babel

Eliminate everyone but Jennifer Hudson and Abigail Breslin. Toss in a big dose of “We didn’t nominate it for Best Picture” guilt, mix with “Her nomination is good enough, she’s ten”, combine with “Hudson? Wasn’t a Hudson in the original production?”

Odds-on favorite, Jennifer Hudson, Abigail Breslin a darkhorse favorite, no one else even in the running.

Animated Feature Film

Cars

Happy Feet

Monster House

Okay – given the explosion of CGI studios, why are there only three nominees in this category?

That said, Al Gore is the hidden influence here. Happy Feet for the win. No competition. Plus, penguins are inherently much cuter than cars and houses.

Art Direction

Dreamgirls

The Good Shepherd

Pan's Labyrinth

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

The Prestige

I’m going to go with Pan’s Labyrinth, only because voters often seem to mistake Cinematography with Art Direction. The Prestige is a close second, because it’s a period piece. There’s a very outside chance of Dreamgirls snagging it on the “musicals are artsy” fallacy – but if Hudson gets the actress Oscar, Pan’s Labyrinth is a shoe-in.

Cinematography

The Black Dahlia

Children of Men

The Illusionist

Pan's Labyrinth

The Prestige

An interesting toss-up. Because it wasn’t nominated for Art Direction, Children of Men might not win. On the other hand, the last half hour of that film blows cinematography off the map. The only reason I don’t list it as a favorite is because Pan’s Labyrinth received Art Direction, while Children did not. So, Pan’s Labyrinth is a very slight favorite over Children of Men. The rest… meh. Not so much.

Costume Design

Curse of the Golden Flower

The Devil Wears Prada

Dreamgirls

Marie Antoinette

The Queen

If this is only voted on by costume designers, The Devil Wears Prada, period. Costumes were the movie, not to mention that the costume designer, Patricia Field, is one of the most respected clothing designers in New York.

Otherwise, Dreamgirls by virtue of the “if it’s a musical, it must get all the artsy design awards.”

The Devil Wears Prada, even money, Dreamgirls close second, everything else, nah.

Best Direction

Babel

The Departed

Letters From Iwo Jima

The Queen

United 93

One of these things is not like the other… how United 93 even got nominated in this category is a total mystery to me; how Pedro Almodóvar did not is another mystery.

Martin Scorsese – seven nominations, no wins. This is his to lose. Clint Eastwood has won best director twice, which I’m sure voters will remember; not to mention he has two ponies in the race this year. Stephen Frears is, well, quirky.

While I think that Alejandro González Iñárritu is a much better director than any other nominee in this category this year, he’ll have to turn in a bit more mainstream, Hollywood movie before he earns his chops – an English language only film.

Iñárritu is the dark horse here. If it isn’t Scorsese, it’ll be him. But Scorsese is at that point in his career where he’s going to get the career award by proxy. Too damn many Goodfellas fans around nowadays, even though that movie was crap.

Best Documentary Feature

Deliver Us from Evil

An Inconvenient Truth

Iraq in Fragments

Jesus Camp

My Country, My Country

If ever there were a slate of nominees deserving of a five-way tie, this is it. Deliver Us from Evil documents a pedophile priest who was transferred from parish to parish, despite knowledge of his habits by the folks in habits. An Inconvenient Truth – well, we all know what that’s about – and if it had been released eight years ago, Al Gore would be in his second term.

Iraq in Fragments and My Country, My Country are both about the war in Iraq. Jesus Camp exposes fundies in all their twisted glory.

Box score: two films bashing religious hypocrisy, two films bashing the war in Iraq, one film presenting the facts about global warming.

Five films coming down strongly in favor of liberal issues.

It’s a hard call, however… I think the perception is that public sentiment is strongly against religious hypocrisy and the War on (Some) Terrorists, whereas there’s still some doubt about global warming. Not to mention the Democratic tide of 2006.

Favorite, An Inconvenient Truth, mostly as the most major FU to the powers that be. Runner-up, Jesus Camp, just because it will make Fred Phelps cry.

Documentary Short

The Blood of Yingzhou District

Recycled Life

Rehearsing a Dream

Two Hands

Nothing too inspiring here, but I’ll lean toward The Blood of Yingzhou District only because it’s about childhood AIDS. The others are too depressing but not inspiring enough, not to mention not quite topical enough.

Best Editing

Babel

Blood Diamond

Children of Men

The Departed

United 93

Favorite, Babel, because a non-chronological story is often confused with good editing. Runner-up, United 93. Despite being a piece of crap propaganda, the documentary verité style was probably actually the hardest footage to edit. Editors will recognize that. Everyone else will go “Huh?”

Best Foreign Language Film

After the Wedding

Days of Glory (Indigènes)

The Lives Of Others

Pan's Labyrinth

Water

Pan’s Labyrinth by a long shot. Why Volver was not nominated in this category is a mystery. Come to think of it, why Apocalypto wasn’t is also a mystery. Say what you want about Mel, his film wasn’t in English.

Best Make-Up

Apocalypto

Click

Pan's Labyrinth

Oddly enough, I’d bet on Click for this one. Not only does Adam Sandler age from about thirty to seventy, but he also gains three hundred pounds, then loses them – and everyone else in his life also ages appropriately. (Incidentally, the “old” version of Adam Sandler looks a hell of a lot like Al Pacino in The Godfather III.)

Pan’s Labyrinth will probably win, so that gets my official vote, although I still think Click deserves it. If you haven’t seen it, do so. It really is It’s a Wonderful Life for the new millennium. Apocalypto was sunk by certain events last summer in Malibu.

Music (Score)

Babel

The Good German

Notes on a Scandal

Pan's Labyrinth

The Queen

When in doubt, go for the name. Philip Glass scored Notes on a Scandal. He’ll win.

Music (Song)

An Inconvenient Truth

Dreamgirls

Dreamgirls

Cars

Dreamgirls

Well… Dreamgirls got greedy, and ate their vote. Seriously – how can any “original” Broadway Musical add three songs to the score and not seem to be whoring out? This is really a contest between Randy Newman (“Our Town”) and Melissa Etheridge (“I Need to Wake Up”).

While I think that Randy Newman is a fucking hack who’s been rewriting the same three songs songs since 1985, I also think that the Academy knee-jerks for him every time. So, although I’d much prefer the lesbian to win, it’ll probably be Randy “I’m Way Over-rated” Newman.

I’m going to vote for Melissa, but Randy will win. Asshole. Especially in a year when Ennio Morricone, a composer with real talent, is getting an honorary award.

Best Picture

Babel

The Departed

Letters from Iwo Jima

Little Miss Sunshine

The Queen

It really comes down to two things. Crash: The Sequel, in which case Babel wins, or Marty, We Love You, aka The Departed.

Little Miss Sunshine and The Queen are incredible longshots; Letters from Iwo Jima was a beautiful film, but Million Dollar Baby undercuts its votes, as does Flags of Our Fathers, the un-nominated English language version of the same film.

Favorite (though not mine), The Departed, but don’t be surprised if Babel wins. (If Spike Lee made as many “urban” gangster films as Marty did, he’d be accused of being a self-hating racist. And, remember, in the 70s, Italian Americans were picketing Hollywood movie studios for negative depictions of Italian Americans, a la The Godfather. Somehow, in the 90s, Scorsese made a career out of the same thing. Jerkwad.)

Short Film/Animated

The Danish Poet

Lifted

The Little Matchgirl

Maestro

No Time for Nuts

The tie-breaker category. The Little Matchgirl has the best and only poster at imdb.com; No Time for Nuts is the only film with votes. Lifted was produced by Pixar, but animation has become such a blazé category that that isn’t a recommendation anymore. Put your money on No Time for Nuts.

Short Film/Live Action

Binta and the Great Idea

Éramos Pocos (One Too Many)

Helmer & Son

The Saviour

West Bank Story

I think it’s safe to apply the “Hank Yuloff Rule of Indecision” here. West Bank Story. It’s got Jews. It wins.

Sound Editing

Apocalypto

Blood Diamond

Flags of Our Fathers

Letters from Iwo Jima

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

The big surprise here is that Dreamgirls the musical was not nominated; musicalness usually sucks up the sound awards. Knock out the two Clint Eastwoods as self-competition, and Pirates as, well, Disney. It comes down to Mel and Evil de Boers. Given that most Sound Editors wives would probably kill for a good three carat ring, Blood Diamond has the edge here. A revenge vote of another kind.

Sound Mixing

Apocalypto

Blood Diamond

Dreamgirls

Flags of Our Fathers

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

And, here we have the musical. Default winner. This will probably be one of only two Dreamgirls Oscars for the evening.

Visual Effects

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

Poseidon

Superman Returns

Childhood sentiment here: Pirates for the win. Nobody saw Poseidon. Anyone voting who did was probably old enough to remember the original, the effects that were entirely physical, and Shelley Winters. Superman falls into that category of “films that are nothing but Visual Effects, so who cares?”

In a way, this is a backhanded thank you to Johnny Depp and Walt Disney – the non-evil Walt Disney, that is, and not the corporate suck that most VE supervisors would shun in every way possible. And Johnny Depp is turning into the Christopher Walken of his generation – it’s impossible to not love him on screen.

Writing (Adapted)

Borat Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan

Children of Men

The Departed

Little Children

Notes on a Scandal

A little screenwriter insight for you – while Borat was a brilliant film and an amazing satire, it has a snowball’s chance in hell of winning this award. Why? Although it was very tightly scripted (much more so than you’d ever think), it came across as an actor improvising his way through a reality show – and reality shows are the WGA’s anathema, since reality producers seem to think they don’t really have to pay writers jack shit. (They’re one step below animation in the “things Hollywood screenwriters hate with a passion” list.)

I think the horse race is down to Children of Men and The Departed, since the other two films were so little seen – although Little Children might pull a surprise upset here. But if it comes down to the aforementioned, I’d give Children of Men the slight edge, since it isn’t a remake of some bit of Hong Kong cinema gangster crap.

Rule of thumb: writers go for Europe; directors go for (or steal from) Asia.

Writing (Original)

Babel

Letters from Iwo Jima

Little Miss Sunshine

Pan's Labyrinth

The Queen

Although Little Miss Sunshine might seem like fluff, everything that happened in it came from character. That’s the kind of thing writers dig. Babel was more of a director’s trick, Letters from Iwo Jima was translated out of English, Pan’s Labyrinth was, again, a director’s trick, and The Queen, while admirable, was also much closer to BBC Flick of the Week territory, Helen Mirren’s make-up notwithstanding.

The only possible reason Little Miss Sunshine wouldn’t win is because it’s Michael Arndt’s first and only credit – but, sometimes, writers appreciate that kind of thing. If it doesn’t win, it’ll be Babel, as a backwards thanks for Guillermo Arriaga’s amazing Amores Perros – and also a slap at the director of Babel, who got that gig because Arriaga gave him such an amazing script to kick off his international career.

And that’s that. Your mileage may vary. And I’ll still probably only place 12th at the next annual FilmMonthly Oscar Party at the Casa de Yuloff.